@Article{MaedaAlXiFoShPe:2011:SiPaFu,
               author = "Maeda, Eduardo E. and Almeida, Cl{\'a}udia Maria de and Ximenes, 
                         Arimat{\'e}a de Carvalho and Formaggio, Antonio Roberto and 
                         Shimabukuro, Yosio Edemir and Pellikka, Petri",
          affiliation = "University of Helsinki, Department of Geosciences and Geography, 
                         Gustaf H{\"a}llstr{\"o}min katu 2, 00014 Helsinki, Finland and 
                         {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto 
                         Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de 
                         Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas 
                         Espaciais (INPE)} and University of Helsinki, Department of 
                         Geosciences and Geography, Gustaf H{\"a}llstr{\"o}min katu 2, 
                         00014 Helsinki, Finland",
                title = "Dynamic modeling of forest conversion: Simulation of past and 
                         future scenarios of rural activities expansion in the fringes of 
                         the Xingu National Park, Brazilian Amazon",
              journal = "International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and 
                         Geoinformation",
                 year = "2011",
               volume = "13",
               number = "3",
                pages = "435--446",
                month = "June",
             keywords = "Land use change, Xingu National Park, Brazilian Amazon, Simulation 
                         model, Landscape dynamics.LAND-COVER-CHANGE, CELLULAR-AUTOMATA 
                         MODEL, LANDSCAPE DYNAMICS, DEFORESTATION, IMAGES.",
             abstract = "The present work is committed to simulate the expansion of 
                         agricultural and cattle raising activities within a watershed 
                         located in the fringes of the Xingu National Park, Brazilian 
                         Amazon. A spatially explicit dynamic model of land cover and land 
                         use change was used to provide both past and future scenarios of 
                         forest conversion into such rural activities, aiming to identify 
                         the role of driving forces of change in the study area. The 
                         employed modeling platform Dinamica EGO consists in a cellular 
                         automata environment that embodies neighborhood-based transition 
                         algorithms and spatial feedback approaches in a stochastic 
                         multi-step simulation framework. Biophysical variables and legal 
                         restrictions drove this simulation model, and statistical 
                         validation tests were then conducted for the generated past 
                         simulations (from 2000 to 2005), by means of multiple resolution 
                         fitting methods. Based on optimal calibration of past simulations, 
                         future scenarios were conceived, so as to figure out trends and 
                         spatial patterns of forest conversion in the study area for the 
                         year 2015. In all simulated scenarios, pasturelands remained 
                         nearly stable throughout the analyzed period, while a large 
                         expansion in croplands took place. The most optimistic scenario 
                         indicates that more than 50% of the natural forest will be 
                         replaced by either cropland or pastureland by 2015. This modeling 
                         experiment revealed the suitability of the adopted model to 
                         simulate processes of forest conversion. It also indicates its 
                         possible further applicability in generating simulations of 
                         deforestation for areas with expanding rural activities in the 
                         Amazon and in tropical forests worldwide.",
                  doi = "10.1016/j.jag.2010.09.008",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jag.2010.09.008",
                 issn = "1569-8432",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "almeida.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "06 maio 2024"
}